Been too distracted by the bomb cyclone or BOM? Maybe State of Origin is a distraction? Or been too busy booing your own team at half time? Do you need some last-minute NRL tipping advice? Or simply want something else to blame when the tips go wrong? Either way, saddle up for The Gurgler’s NRL Round 18 Ratings and Late Mail.
In a new additional to our stable of NRL stats and tipping products, we have used all the stats we have, smashed them against each other like atoms, and come up with a H2H rating.
It includes this year’s form with a bias because it is this year, but we don’t forget historic stats of the H2H against this week’s opponents, and the ground and day the teams are playing on.
We’ve also applied an adjustment for each team’s increase or decrease in win % over the Origin period.
Then slice up the scores out of 100% between the two sides. The bigger the percentage, the more likely to win.
2025 NRL Round 18 Ratings
Here are the H2H ratings and winners for the first of the Origin affected rounds.
Our ratings picked 7/8 last weekend with only Parramatta letting us and themselves down.
The Ratings also includes the team’s relevant Origin period form.
2025 NRL Round 18 Late Mail
FRI – BULLDOGS v BRISBANE (Olympic Stadium)
Stats are a bit all over the place here with Broncos have winning six of the last seven clashes v Bulldogs and they won the last game between these sides at ANZ Stadium in 2022, but lost the four games prior to that.
Bulldogs have lost their last two games at Accor Stadium to Qld teams but are 4/4 on a Friday this season. Broncos haven’t won away in Sydney since Round One this season.
It’s reasonably similar for the Origin player losses too, with arguably the team’s best attacking weapons out in Stephen Crichton and Reece Walsh, some forward grunt like Payne Haas and Max King, and centre power of Jacob Kiraz and Gehamat Shibasaki. Broncos also lose Patrick Carrigan too. It does mean man mountain Xavier Willison will get more minutes which is never a bad thing. But the Bulldogs equivalent in Kurt Mann is missing too. Some notable returns with Selwyn Cobbo getting a go at fullback and former try scoring machine Deine Mariner. The Broncos seemingly naming three hookers in the one team. If any of them were a Wests Tigers player they’d probably would have already left the club.
SAT – CANBERRA v ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA
Canberra keep find in ways to win, which has been rewarded with top spot on the ladder, but that success has led to Queensland calling Josh Papali’i out of retirement to play Origin. He is being quoted as the new Allan Langer, which I presume is for the comeback not his halfback skills, although, he has proven to be a more than adequate goal kicker. Somehow Queensland have forgotten to select Corey Horsburgh again, but Qld’s potential loss is Canberra’s gain. What is a Canberra loss is their leading try scorer Hudson Young. Dragons lose Valentine Holmes and have a few more injuries to add to their list. But Tyrell Sloan returns on the wing, which is a boost.
Canberra are on a four game winning streak v Dragons plus at Canberra Stadium it’s also four in a row and it’s 14 of the last 16 matches there. Being Canberra, and likely cold, it’s no surprise that Dragons don’t like going there. One sneaky stats though, the Dragons have won the last two games on a Saturday at Canberra Stadium. Which goes hand in hand with the fact that Saturday is Canberra’s worst day this season. Although the Dragons can’t talk, they’ve won only two of their last ten games on a Saturday.
SAT – NORTH QUEENSLAND v MELBOURNE
North Queensland have won their last three home games v Melbourne, but they have been in either Origin period or late in the season primed for resting. Although, this game is in Origin period, so it does still apply. Talking of Origin, Melbourne are one of tow teams with a 100% win record during Origin period this season. Maybe the players enjoy less Craig Bellamy due to his Origin commitments, or they are scared of losing. Either way it’s working, unlike the Cowboys really. Sure, they beat the Gold Coast, but they are last, unlike Melbourne. But the Storm’s record away to Queensland sides recently is surprisingly underwhelming – W7 L6.
Cowboys will be missing four Origin players and Jake Clifford and Tom Duffy get the chance to be blamed for the loss. No Jason Taumalolo yet, which won’t help, but the Cowboys are jumping on the Shibasaki bandwagon by naming Jamal Shibasaki on an extended bench. John Bateman returning may help. Melbourne as per usual are missing stars, but they have their factory assembly line of NRL robots to take over where anyone left off. Tyran Wishart filling in at five eighth and Jonah Pezet returning via the number 14 position. They will not have Sualauvi Fa’alogo either after his unfortunate injury last round. Sad, the game needs more of him.
SUN – ROOSTERS v WESTS TIGERS
The Roosters are missing five players for Origin duty, but with their record against the Tigers at the best of times they could probably lose another five. That’s with the Tigers further depleted than usual with no Jarome Luai, and neither Tallyn Da Silva, who has done a Galvin to the Eels. That’s a bit unfair on TDS, as he never carried on near as much. The Roosters welcome back Egan Butcher and have named a bunch of players that we aren’t too sure of as we haven’t watched enough Roosters games, plus Mark Nawaqanitawase will move to centre and probably prove as hard to catch as his name is to pronounce. Sunia Turuva moves to fullback which seems like a much better idea than most others when their regular number one is out. Adam Doueihi at five eighth is not bad either. Maybe the Tigers won’t get flogged on paper.
On the form side, it’s horror reading for the Tigers. Their current six game losing streak is the best or worst ion the comp depending on which way you look at it. Plus their stats against the Roosters is terrible. Roosters have won eight straight v Wests Tigers and 18 of the last 19 games. Roosters have won 12 home games straight v Wests Tigers and lost only two of 18 overall at home v Wests Tigers. Roosters have also won ten straight on a Sunday v Wests Tigers. The Tigers are going to need an Origin miracle.
SUN – MANLY v SOUTH SYDNEY
An interesting, almost last chance saloon game for one if not two of these teams. Souths were the latest team to get thrashed by the Dolphins last weekend and that loss is harder to take as Cody Walker is out again after just one week back. His likely replacement Jayden Sullivan broke a leg, so Jack Wighton, who it must be said was enormous v Dolphins last weekend could be the saviour. They need him to be badly. Alex Johnston replaces Latrell Mitchell at fullback and is a good idea for the players they have left that are available, he might be having withdrawal symptoms after not scoring last weekend. He’s running out of time to beat that record this season, as the Rabbitohs looking less and less likely to be playing finals footy. A certain Brandon Smith has been named in jersey 22 and you would presume he will play.
Stats are interesting…. Souths have won eight of their last nine v Manly, and if you only count games in Australia it is eight wins in a row. Souths have won three of their last four games at Brookvale. But….Manly have won nine of the ten clashes with Souths on a Sunday anywhere. And then Souths have won one of their last eight games on a Sunday v anyone. Souths are winless during Origin and have lost five in a row. If the Tigers somehow win v Roosters, Souths will need to avoid losing not to share the season’s worst losing streak.
2025 NRL Round 17 Review + Round 18 Preview
Here’s the best of our wrap ups of last weekend and look forward to this weekend.
NRL ROUND 18 – TIPS AND STATS
NRL ROUND 18 – NRL DONKEY EXPERT TIPS AND OPINION
NRL ROUND 17 – TEAM OF THE WEEK
NRL ROUND 17 – STATS n STUFF
2025 NRL Season Stats So Far
And if you don’t believe our ratings, then help yourself to a bunch of stats from the 2025 NRL season.
Here’s the best of the NRL Team Stats from last weekend.
READ MORE: THE GURGLER’S 2025 NRL SEASON SPECIALS
NRL 2025 SEASON LADDER PREDICTIONS
WOODEN SPOONERS 2025 NRL HEADLINES
WHY YOUR TEAM CAN’T WIN THE NRL 2025 PREMIERSHIP
