Been too distracted by the cold weather snap? Maybe you’re disappointed in the Origin penalty count? Or been too busy booing your own team at half time? Do you need some last-minute NRL tipping advice? Or simply want something else to blame when the tips go wrong? Either way, saddle up for The Gurgler’s NRL Round 17 Ratings and Late Mail.
In a new additional to our stable of NRL stats and tipping products, we have used all the stats we have, smashed them against each other like atoms, and come up with a H2H rating.
It includes this year’s form with a bias because it is this year, but we don’t forget historic stats of the H2H against this week’s opponents, and the ground and day the teams are playing on.
We’ve also applied an adjustment for each team’s increase or decrease in win % over the Origin period.
Then slice up the scores out of 100% between the two sides. The bigger the percentage, the more likely to win.
2025 NRL Round 17 Ratings
Here are the H2H ratings and winners for the first of the Origin affected rounds.
Our ratings picked 5/7 last weekend but was only available via social media.
The Ratings also includes the team’s relevant Origin period form.
2025 NRL Round 17 Late Mail
THU – PENRITH v BULLDOGS (CommBank)
After what seems months of mediocre clashes to being the week we have a real blockbuster to kick off Round 17. Penrith have some momentum after a stunning win minus Origin players last weekend in New Zealand, and the top teams looking over their shoulder with the Panthers now in the eight, especially with their five Origin starts returning. Although, not forgetting Bulldogs have a bunch of Origin stars to return as well.
Penrith have a great record v Bulldogs too winning seven straight v Bulldogs heading into this clash. Thursday seems to be a problem for both sides this season, Penrith have lost all three Thursday games this season, all three have been away games. Bulldogs are also winless from their two Thursday games in 2025, both against Qld sides – one at home. CommBank isn’t the best place for either team as well, Bulldogs are W2 L7 as the away side at CommBank Stadium. Penrith are W1 L3 as the home side. The historic H2H stats say Penrith, but it’s a different Bulldogs from recent years, and they are top of the competition with just two losses.
FRI – MANLY v WESTS TIGERS
If only this game was not on a Friday. Wests Tigers won the most recent game v Manly, but Manly have won the three most recent games at Brookvale v Wests Tigers, and average 45 points a game in that run. Manly aren’t sure if injuries, their coach or the DCE transfer saga that has seen their form drop recently. Moving Tom Trbojevic doesn’t seem like the answer either. Wests Tigers have a bigger fullback problem as there is out completely – Jahream Bula, replaced by Heath Mason, who obviously isn’t Bula. It does see Luai and Fainu line up at six and seven which looks the way forward for the Tigers, post Galvin. Manly will miss the firepower of Haumole Olakau’atu. As mentioned earlier Fridays are bad for the Tigers – they have lost 12 games in a row on a Friday. It’s also nine losses in a row away on a Friday for the Wests Tigers with a last win in July 2019.
FRI – NEWCASTLE v CANBERRA
Newcastle haven’t lost a first half since being booed off their ground at half time v Manly, so their good starts to recent games may be out of fear, especially back here at home. The Knights have also have won four of their last five v Canberra, so that helps. And they deserved their victory over the Dolphins last weekend, a team who had scored a million points in the three games leading into the match in Perth. But, Canberra are one of the form teams in the competition, as their second place on the ladder suggests, and Canberra have won six straight games away from home, plus won six straight games v Sydney/NSW teams on a Friday. Canberra have won all three games v Newcastle on a Friday, but all three of those games were in Canberra. Newcastle have lost four straight games on a Friday. Fletcher Sharpe is a big loss for Newcastle, but they are strengthened by the potential returns of Greg Marzhew, Jack Hetherington, Jacob Saifiti and Tyson Gamble. The game also features a match up of sons, one is the prodigal son Dominic Young and the other is an actual son Jed Stuart.
SAT – BRISBANE v WAHS
Hard to believe with all the doom and gloom about the Broncos that they are fifth on the ladder, although a loss (that looked likely at half time) would have had them outside the top eight, such is the tightness of the midfield pack. A player like Payne Haas makes all the difference for as long as he can carry the Broncos on his back. It was a rare loss for the Warriors last weekend against a weakened Penrith side, but worth noting that’s now two losses from two games straight after the bye for the Warriors, and on paper were served up a good opportunity to win. Things also going in the Warriors favour is their form away and v Queensland teams. Warriors have won four in a row away from home on a Saturday. Warriors have also won four in a row away on any day. Warriors have won all three games so far this season v Qld opposition. Warriors are also on a two game winning streak v Broncos. But Broncos have won five in a row at home on a Saturday v non-Sydney teams. Kurt Capewell is back in for the Warriors, which always makes a side better. Broncos have named Selwyn Cobbo on an extended bench, which seems like teasing given reports of their lowball half-price new contract offer.
SAT – ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA v PARRAMATTA (Win)
Saturday night is not all right for these lower ladder plodders, Dragons have won one of their last nine games on a Saturday. And one from their last five at Win Stadium on a Saturday, while Parramatta have lost four in a row away on a Saturday. Breaking that cycle though is Parramatta have won five straight v Dragons on a Saturday. Parramatta have also won four straight v Dragons and 13 of their last 16. So advantage Eels on the H2H. Dylan Brown is the big name returning for Parramatta, while the Dragons welcome back Origin winner Valentine Holmes and former Origin winner Jaydn Su’A. Lachlan Ilias is named on an extended bench, but might have to change his name to Lachlan Flanagan to get a look in.
SAT – DOLPHINS v RABBITOHS
The Dolphins came crashing back to earth last weekend against Newcastle – a team they have now lost five in a row against. The Dolphins have had a little more success this season against Sydney teams and are 2/2 v Sydney teams at Suncorp Stadium this season. Dolphins also have a decent W7 L2 record v Sydney teams at Suncorp Stadium. So that helps. Souths have lost their last four Saturday games which doesn’t help, them. The Rabbitohs’ Saturday win rate of 20% is the second lowest in the comp, behind the Dragons, the Dolphins’ Saturday win rate isn’t much better at 40%. The Dolphins are W3 L2 at home at Suncorp Stadium on a Saturday. South Sydney sees Cody Walker return which will help, and lord know how many tries Alex Johnston will score with Walker reuniting with Latrell Mitchell. Maybe Johnston will break the all-time scoring record this weekend (he is six behind). Campbell Graham and Peter Mamouzelos returning also help the Of course at the end of the day it will probably all be about Wayne Bennett. It should be about Ray Stone. Always.
SUN – MELBOURNE v CRONULLA
Melbourne weren’t great last weekend, especially if you use the key metric of Craig Bellamy dummy spits. But they still won, which is why they always feature in September. Cronulla weren’t great in one half of last weekend’s game, and sadly for them it was the one that mattered for the final score. The win for Melbourne made it 3/3 for wins straight after the bye. Stats are against the Sharks here as Melbourne have won six of their last seven games v Cronulla at home. But a glimmer of hope and it is only 4/8 on a Sunday and just one of their last three v Sharks on a Sunday at home. To poop that party Melbourne have won all four home games this season v Sydney teams.
Interestingly, the Sharks last seven games on a Sunday have all been away. Xavier Coates is the big name to return this week for either side, which is likely to help Melbourne more than Cronulla.
SUN – GOLD COAST v NORTH QUEENSLAND
You get the feeling that Todd Payten is probably one more flogging away from the sack. Whilst that may sounds like a good night out in an Adult Entertainment venue, it doesn’t for the North Queensland coach. The Cowboys have been pretty woeful recently and have slid out of the eight accordingly. The Titans don’t usually have many great stats leading into any but, but the Gold Coast have won four of their last five v North Queensland at home, which is a pretty good one, for them. Also, Gold Coast have won their last four games at home to the Cowboys on a Sunday, and lead the all-time H2H record v Cowboys on a Sunday 6-2. Plus North Queensland have won just one of their last six games v Queensland teams. Their only win was against the Gold Coast. To counter that Gold Coast have lost all three games v Queensland teams this season. So form and stats going against the Cowboys, how about player ins and out? Origin stars Reuben Cotter and Reece Robson return. They may need more than that on current form. Cowboys have also named Marly Bitungane on an extended bench, and if he plays could be the first NRL player born in Tanzania, admitting ignorance about any other potential Tanzanian born NRL players. He’s averaging 100 run metres a game and six tries and line breaks this season for the Northern Pride, not bad for a prop.
2025 NRL Round 16 Review + Round 17 Preview
Here’s the best of our wrap ups of last weekend and look forward to this weekend.
NRL ROUND 17 – TIPS AND STATS
NRL ROUND 17 – NRL DONKEY EXPERT TIPS AND OPINION
NRL ROUND 16 – TEAM OF THE WEEK
NRL ROUND 16 – STATS n STUFF
2025 NRL Season Stats So Far
And if you don’t believe our ratings, then help yourself to a bunch of stats from the 2025 NRL season.
Here’s the best of the NRL Team Stats from last weekend.
READ MORE: THE GURGLER’S 2025 NRL SEASON SPECIALS
NRL 2025 SEASON LADDER PREDICTIONS
WOODEN SPOONERS 2025 NRL HEADLINES
WHY YOUR TEAM CAN’T WIN THE NRL 2025 PREMIERSHIP
